NSW Solar Feed-in Tariffs in 2026: Why They've Fallen

If you've watched your solar feed-in credit shrink year after year, you're not imagining it. In NSW the amount retailers pay you for electricity you export has fallen to almost nothing — and the maths of owning solar has quietly flipped. The value is no longer in selling power to the grid; it's in using the power yourself. This guide explains what's happened, what the current benchmark actually is, and how to think about your system in 2026.

What the numbers actually are in 2026-27

NSW feed-in tariffs are set by retailers, not the government. Each year IPART (the state pricing regulator) publishes a benchmark range — a guide to what a fair rate looks like — but retailers are free to offer more, less, or nothing at all.

For 2026-27 the IPART benchmark range is 3.4 to 6.5 cents per kWh. Compare that with a typical electricity usage rate of well over 30c/kWh and the picture is stark: every unit of solar you export earns you a handful of cents, while every unit you avoid buying saves you five to ten times as much.

Why feed-in tariffs have fallen so far

Feed-in rates reflect the wholesale value of electricity at the moment your panels are exporting — and that's the problem. NSW now has a huge amount of rooftop solar all pushing power into the grid at the same time: the middle of a sunny day. When supply floods in and demand is low, the wholesale price of daytime energy collapses, sometimes to zero or below.

Retailers price their feed-in offers off that reality. Since your exports arrive exactly when the grid least needs them, the rate they'll pay keeps drifting down. This is a structural shift, not a temporary dip — the more solar goes on roofs, the less each exported kilowatt is worth.

Why self-consumption now beats export

The strategy that made sense when feed-in tariffs were generous — oversize the system and sell the surplus — no longer stacks up. The goal today is to shift as much of your usage into daylight hours so your panels power it directly:

• Run the dishwasher, washing machine and dryer during the day rather than at night.
• Pre-cool or pre-heat the house with the air conditioner while the sun is up.
• Heat water in the middle of the day — a heat-pump hot water system on a timer is a simple, effective solar 'battery'.
• Charge an EV during daylight where your routine allows it.

There's also a genuinely useful new option in NSW. The federal Solar Sharer scheme is live from 1 July 2026 via participating retailers: on an eligible opt-in plan it offers a free-power window from 11am to 2pm, up to 24 kWh per day, if you have a smart meter. That's another reason to move flexible loads into the middle of the day — though availability varies by retailer, so confirm the current offer before relying on it.

Here's the catch

None of this means solar is a bad deal — good rooftop solar in NSW still pays for itself comfortably, because the savings come from the power you don't buy. But two things are worth being honest about:

• A bigger system isn't automatically better. If you can't use the extra output during the day, the surplus just exports at 3.4–6.5c. Beyond a point, extra panels earn almost nothing. The right size is the one matched to your daytime consumption, not the biggest that fits on the roof.
• A battery doesn't always pay either. Batteries let you store daytime solar for the evening peak, which is compelling as feed-in rates fall — and NSW does have incentives that stack (the federal Cheaper Home Batteries program plus the PDRS BESS2 VPP-connection incentive, worth roughly $500–1,100 net after fees). But typical battery payback still runs around 8 years. For some households the numbers work; for others they don't. It depends on how much evening power you actually use and what you pay for it.

We deliberately don't quote exact incentive dollars here, because certificate values are market-set and move constantly — they need to be confirmed against current figures for your specific situation before you'd bank on them.

How to decide for your own home

Start with your actual bill and your daily habits, not a sales brochure. Look at how much of your usage happens in daylight versus after dark, check your current feed-in rate and usage rate, and work out whether shifting loads alone gets you most of the benefit. Only then does a battery become a question worth modelling — and it should be modelled on your numbers, not a generic payback claim.

We sell no panels, no batteries and no plans — so when we tell you a smaller system or 'no battery yet' is the smarter move, there's nothing in it for us but getting your answer right. That's the whole point of independent advice.

Figures in this guide are current at the date of publication and indicative only — rebate and certificate values change over time (federal battery certificates step down each January and July), and state schemes are amended often. Confirm the current numbers for your situation before you commit. This is general information, not personal financial advice.