The 2026 SRES Change: STCs Now Cover Solar Up to 1 MW

If your business has looked at a solar system bigger than a house-sized array but smaller than an industrial rooftop farm, you've likely hit what the industry calls the 'missing middle'. Systems in the 100 kW to 1 MW range — the sort that suit warehouses, farms, factories, schools and shopping centres — have historically been treated like utility-scale projects for certificate purposes. That's set to change. Here's a plain-English look at the 2026 reform and whether it actually shifts the numbers for you.

What is actually changing

Australia's Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) creates Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs) — a federal, upfront discount that's already baked into the 'after STC' prices you see quoted for rooftop solar. Until now, only systems under 100 kW could create STCs. Anything larger sat under the Large-scale scheme and earned Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) instead — created annually based on actual generation, and far more administratively involved.

The announced change (from the federal government's 'Putting more roofs to work') lifts the SRES threshold from 100 kW to 1 MW, effective 1 October 2026. The practical effect:

• Under 100 kW: STCs, as today.
• 100 kW – 1 MW: now eligible for STCs created upfront at installation, rather than LGCs earned over years.
• Over 1 MW: still on LGCs.

Why upfront certificates matter for cash flow

The difference isn't just the headline percentage — it's when you get the money and how much admin sits behind it.

Under the old LGC model, a business installing (say) a 300 kW array would register the system, meter its generation, and create certificates progressively over the life of the system. The value was real but deferred, and selling LGCs meant navigating a fluctuating spot market. Under STCs, the certificate value is calculated on the system's deemed output and applied as a discount at the point of sale — so it lands in your capital budget on day one, not spread across a decade.

For a business weighing up a solar business case, that changes the payback maths at the front end: less capital out the door, sooner.

Here's the catch — this doesn't automatically make solar 'worth it'

This is where independence matters. A cheaper upfront cost is welcome, but it doesn't change the fundamental question: does the system generate value where and when your business actually uses power?

• Self-consumption is everything. Commercial solar pays best when you use most of what you generate on-site, during daylight. If your business runs hard in the evening — or is empty on weekends when the sun's blazing — a big array can spill a lot of cheap energy back to the grid for very little.
• Feed-in tariffs are modest and falling. Exported energy earns a retailer-set rate that's typically in the range of 3–10 c/kWh in most states, and generally declining. Confirm the current rate for your state and retailer before assuming export revenue.
• Export limits and network constraints. Larger commercial systems often face connection conditions and export caps set by the local network. The SRES change doesn't remove those.
• The STC factor steps down over time. STC values decline on a schedule as the scheme winds toward its end date, so the exact discount depends on when you install. We don't have the precise 100 kW–1 MW STC values in our current pack — those must be confirmed against the Clean Energy Regulator's figures at the time you quote.

Note also that the change is subject to regulations. The 1 October 2026 commencement was the announced date, but the final rules should be confirmed before you build a business case around them.

Don't forget your state scheme (or its absence)

The SRES is federal and applies nationally. But commercial certificate schemes at the state level vary a lot, and they can stack on top of federal STCs:

• NSW: the Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) and Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS).
• VIC: the Victorian Energy Upgrades program (VEECs).
• SA: the Retailer Energy Productivity Scheme (REPS).
• QLD, WA, TAS, ACT, NT: generally no equivalent commercial certificate scheme.

These schemes typically target energy-efficiency and demand measures rather than solar generation directly, but they can materially change a whole-of-site project's economics. Confirm exactly what applies in your state before assuming a number.

What a business should do before committing

The right-sized system for the SRES change isn't 'as big as the rebate allows' — it's the one that matches your load profile. Before you sign anything:

• Pull your interval (smart-meter) data to see when you actually consume power.
• Model self-consumption vs export at realistic feed-in rates for your state.
• Confirm the current STC value for your system size and install date with the Clean Energy Regulator.
• Check your network's connection and export conditions.
• Stack any applicable state scheme — and confirm it's still live.

Done properly, a 100 kW–1 MW system installed after 1 October 2026 could look meaningfully cheaper than the same system today. But 'cheaper' and 'pays for your business' aren't the same sentence.

We don't sell or install a single panel, so we've no reason to talk you into the biggest array the rebate allows. Our only job is to tell you — using your actual load data and the confirmed figures for your state — whether this change makes solar worth it for you, or whether it doesn't. Sometimes the honest answer is: not yet.

Figures in this guide are current at the date of publication and indicative only — rebate and certificate values change over time (federal battery certificates step down each January and July), and state schemes are amended often. Confirm the current numbers for your situation before you commit. This is general information, not personal financial advice.